NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Friday, 6 November 2026 · GS Staalwerken Stadion

Helmond Sport

17th · 12 pts

20:00KICK-OFF WAT

FC Volendam

7th · 19 pts

33% Helmond

20% Draw

47% FC

OUR PICK

FC Volendam to win

Model probability 47% · fair odds

2.15

Expected goals

1.90 – 2.25

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.99X4.9822.15

Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29

Both scoreGG1.31NG3.93

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.09

Over 1.5

92%

Over/Under 2.5@1.28

Over 2.5

78%

Both teams to score@1.31

76%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

Helmond SportFC Volendam

1.8Goals per game2.3

2.2Conceded per game1.7

0.92Points per game1.46

23%Win rate46%

-5Goal difference8

4Form, last 5 (pts)7

Helmond Sport form

WLLLL

H FC Eindhoven3–2

H Willem II3–4

A Jong AZ5–4

H NAC Breda0–2

A FC OSS3–1

FC Volendam form

LLWDW

H De Graafschap1–2

A FC Eindhoven5–3

H Jong Utrecht6–2

A Waalwijk1–1

H Vitesse2–0

Head to head

Helmond

Draw

Feb 2025FC Volendam – Helmond Sport3–1

Sept 2024Helmond Sport – FC Volendam2–3

Feb 2022FC Volendam – Helmond Sport4–1

Dec 2021Helmond Sport – FC Volendam1–1

Apr 2021FC Volendam – Helmond Sport5–1

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Heracles12+2329

2VVV Venlo13+1528

3Almere City FC13+1425

4Roda13+525

5Emmen13+225

6NAC Breda12+321

7FC Volendam13+819

8Den Bosch13+218

9Vitesse12-117

10Jong AZ13+417

Match preview

Our model makes FC Volendam slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 4.2 goals in total (1.90 for Helmond Sport, 2.25 for FC Volendam), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Helmond Sport sit 17th on 12 points; FC Volendam are 7th on 19.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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