Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Lavans Stadion
Helmond Sport
17th · 12 pts3–2FULL TIME
FC Eindhoven
19th · 11 pts52% Helmond
21% Draw
27% FC
OUR PICK
Helmond Sport to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.49
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.91X4.7923.72
Goals 2.5Over1.43Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
Helmond SportFC Eindhoven1.8Goals per game1.4
2.2Conceded per game2.2
0.92Points per game0.85
23%Win rate23%
-5Goal difference-10
4Form, last 5 (pts)1
Helmond Sport form
WLLLLH FC Eindhoven3–2
H Willem II3–4
A Jong AZ5–4
H NAC Breda0–2
A FC OSS3–1
FC Eindhoven form
LWLLLA Helmond Sport3–2
H FC Volendam5–3
H Jong PSV U211–2
H Vitesse0–1
A Almere City FC3–0
Head to head
2
Helmond
1
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven3–2
Apr 2026FC Eindhoven – Helmond Sport1–0
Sept 2025Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven1–0
Mar 2025FC Eindhoven – Helmond Sport2–2
Nov 2024Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven3–4
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Helmond Sport slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.13 for Helmond Sport, 1.49 for FC Eindhoven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Helmond Sport sit 17th on 12 points; FC Eindhoven are 19th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.