Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen
7th · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
NEC Nijmegen
13th · 11 pts56% Heerenveen
23% Draw
21% NEC
OUR PICK
Heerenveen to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.06
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X4.4324.68
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen1.7Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.7
1.64Points per game1.00
45%Win rate18%
6Goal difference-2
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Heerenveen form
No recent matches.
NEC Nijmegen form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Heerenveen
0
Draw
0
NEC
These sides haven't met recently.
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Heerenveen clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.86 for Heerenveen, 1.06 for NEC Nijmegen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heerenveen sit 7th on 18 points; NEC Nijmegen are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.