Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen
7th · 18 pts12:15KICK-OFF WAT
Feyenoord
1st · 25 pts30% Heerenveen
23% Draw
46% Feyenoord
OUR PICK
Feyenoord to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.74
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.32X4.2722.15
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
HeerenveenFeyenoord1.7Goals per game3.0
1.2Conceded per game1.1
1.64Points per game2.27
45%Win rate64%
6Goal difference21
12Form, last 5 (pts)11
Heerenveen form
WWWWLH NEC Nijmegen1–0
A Excelsior Maassluis0–2
A ADO Den Haag2–3
H Excelsior4–0
A PSV Eindhoven2–0
Feyenoord form
DDLWWH Fortuna Sittard1–1
A PSV Eindhoven1–1
A Real Betis1–0
A Telstar3–4
H Como3–2
Head to head
2
Heerenveen
1
Draw
2
Feyenoord
Jan 2026Heerenveen – Feyenoord2–2
Dec 2025Feyenoord – Heerenveen2–3
Sept 2025Feyenoord – Heerenveen1–0
May 2025Heerenveen – Feyenoord2–0
Nov 2024Feyenoord – Heerenveen3–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Feyenoord slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.36 for Heerenveen, 1.74 for Feyenoord), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heerenveen sit 7th on 18 points; Feyenoord are 1st on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.