Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Friday, 16 October 2026 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen
7th · 18 pts4–0FULL TIME
Excelsior
15th · 11 pts60% Heerenveen
20% Draw
20% Excelsior
OUR PICK
Heerenveen to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.16
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.68X4.9025.02
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
HeerenveenExcelsior1.7Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game2.5
1.64Points per game1.00
45%Win rate27%
6Goal difference-12
12Form, last 5 (pts)1
Heerenveen form
WWWWLH NEC Nijmegen1–0
A Excelsior Maassluis0–2
A ADO Den Haag2–3
H Excelsior4–0
A PSV Eindhoven2–0
Excelsior form
LWLLLH Twente0–9
A MVV0–3
A Fortuna Sittard1–0
A Heerenveen4–0
H Groningen1–5
Head to head
3
Heerenveen
0
Draw
2
Excelsior
Oct 2026Heerenveen – Excelsior4–0
Mar 2026Excelsior – Heerenveen1–2
Oct 2025Heerenveen – Excelsior2–1
Jan 2024Excelsior – Heerenveen3–0
Sept 2023Heerenveen – Excelsior0–3
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Heerenveen clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.14 for Heerenveen, 1.16 for Excelsior), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heerenveen sit 7th on 18 points; Excelsior are 15th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.