Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Tynecastle Park
Heart Of Midlothian
3rd · 20 pts5–0FULL TIME
ST Mirren
8th · 14 pts54% Heart
22% Draw
24% ST
OUR PICK
Heart Of Midlothian to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.20
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X4.5024.22
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
60%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Heart Of MidlothianST Mirren2.2Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game1.7
1.82Points per game1.17
55%Win rate33%
7Goal difference-8
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Heart Of Midlothian form
LDWLH Hibernian1–2
H Rangers2–2
A Motherwell0–2
A Trabzonspor2–0
ST Mirren form
LDWLLA Motherwell1–0
H Hibernian1–1
H Dundee2–1
A Aberdeen3–1
A Heart Of Midlothian5–0
Head to head
0
Heart
0
Draw
0
ST
These sides haven't met recently.
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.92 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.20 for ST Mirren), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heart Of Midlothian sit 3rd on 20 points; ST Mirren are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.