Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
GHAPremier League · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Kpandu stadium
Heart of Lions
12th · 11 pts0–2FULL TIME
Berekum Chelsea
11th · 11 pts49% Heart
25% Draw
26% Berekum
OUR PICK
Heart of Lions to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.10
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.0223.82
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Heart of LionsBerekum Chelsea1.1Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.22Points per game1.22
33%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference-1
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Heart of Lions form
DLLLWH Bechem United0–0
A Bibiani Gold Stars2–1
H Berekum Chelsea0–2
A Medeama3–1
H Ashanti Gold3–2
Berekum Chelsea form
DDWWLA Aduana Stars0–0
H Samartex0–0
A Heart of Lions0–2
H Debibi United3–0
A Basake Holy Stars1–0
Head to head
2
Heart
0
Draw
3
Berekum
Oct 2026Heart of Lions – Berekum Chelsea0–2
Feb 2026Berekum Chelsea – Heart of Lions2–1
Nov 2025Heart of Lions – Berekum Chelsea1–0
Apr 2025Berekum Chelsea – Heart of Lions1–0
Nov 2024Heart of Lions – Berekum Chelsea1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Medeama9+718
2Samartex9+518
3Hearts of Oak9+617
4Aduana Stars9+416
5Port City9+415
6Ashanti Gold9+214
7Swedru All Blacks9+214
8Bechem United9+113
9Asante Kotoko9013
10Basake Holy Stars9-412
Match preview
Our model makes Heart of Lions slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.60 for Heart of Lions, 1.10 for Berekum Chelsea), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heart of Lions sit 12th on 11 points; Berekum Chelsea are 11th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.