Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
GHAPremier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Kpandu stadium
Heart of Lions
12th · 11 pts3–2FULL TIME
Ashanti Gold
6th · 14 pts27% Heart
29% Draw
44% Ashanti
OUR PICK
Ashanti Gold to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.27
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.68X3.5022.26
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
56%
Double chance@1.37
X2
73%
Season stats
Heart of LionsAshanti Gold1.1Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game1.1
1.22Points per game1.56
33%Win rate44%
-3Goal difference2
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Heart of Lions form
WLLLWH Bechem United2–1
A Bibiani Gold Stars2–1
H Berekum Chelsea0–2
A Medeama3–1
H Ashanti Gold3–2
Ashanti Gold form
WDLWLA Swedru All Blacks1–2
H Asante Kotoko1–1
A Aduana Stars1–0
H Samartex1–0
A Heart of Lions3–2
Head to head
2
Heart
2
Draw
1
Ashanti
Oct 2026Heart of Lions – Ashanti Gold3–2
Jul 2015Heart of Lions – Ashanti Gold2–1
Feb 2015Ashanti Gold – Heart of Lions2–2
Jun 2014Ashanti Gold – Heart of Lions3–1
Sept 2013Heart of Lions – Ashanti Gold0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Medeama9+718
2Samartex9+518
3Hearts of Oak9+617
4Aduana Stars9+416
5Port City9+415
6Ashanti Gold9+214
7Swedru All Blacks9+214
8Bechem United9+113
9Asante Kotoko9013
10Basake Holy Stars9-412
Match preview
Our model makes Ashanti Gold slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.93 for Heart of Lions, 1.27 for Ashanti Gold), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Heart of Lions sit 12th on 11 points; Ashanti Gold are 6th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.