Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
DEN1. Division · Matchday 11Friday, 16 October 2026 · Capelli Sport Stadion
HB Koge
11th · 11 pts2–3FULL TIME
AB Copenhagen
4th · 18 pts35% HB
25% Draw
40% AB
OUR PICK
AB Copenhagen to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.44
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.87X3.9422.51
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
HB KogeAB Copenhagen1.5Goals per game1.4
1.9Conceded per game1.2
0.85Points per game1.38
15%Win rate38%
-6Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
HB Koge form
LDLWWA Kolding IF3–2
A Hvidovre2–2
H AB Copenhagen2–3
A Vendsyssel FF0–2
H Hobro5–2
AB Copenhagen form
LLWWWA FC Fredericia3–1
H Brondby1–2
H Kolding IF1–0
A HB Koge2–3
H Aarhus Fremad2–0
Head to head
0
HB
0
Draw
0
AB
These sides haven't met recently.
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hvidovre13+1129
2Vejle13+924
3FC Fredericia13+1223
4AB Copenhagen13+318
5Aarhus Fremad13+118
6Hobro13-716
7Kolding IF13-115
8Aalborg13-215
9Hillerød13-512
10Vendsyssel FF13-712
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: HB Koge 35%, the draw 25%, AB Copenhagen 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.33 for HB Koge, 1.44 for AB Copenhagen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HB Koge sit 11th on 11 points; AB Copenhagen are 4th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.