Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
DEN1. Division · Matchday 14Friday, 6 November 2026 · Capelli Sport Stadion
HB Koge
11th · 11 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
Aalborg
8th · 15 pts41% HB
24% Draw
35% Aalborg
OUR PICK
HB Koge to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X4.2122.87
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
HB KogeAalborg1.5Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.4
0.85Points per game1.15
15%Win rate23%
-6Goal difference-2
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
HB Koge form
LDLWWA Kolding IF3–2
A Hvidovre2–2
H AB Copenhagen2–3
A Vendsyssel FF0–2
H Hobro5–2
Aalborg form
DLLDWH Hobro1–1
A Hillerød2–1
H Vejle0–1
A Esbjerg3–3
A Randers FC0–1
Head to head
0
HB
2
Draw
3
Aalborg
Aug 2026Aalborg – HB Koge0–0
May 2026Aalborg – HB Koge1–0
Apr 2026HB Koge – Aalborg1–1
Oct 2025Aalborg – HB Koge2–1
Aug 2025HB Koge – Aalborg0–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hvidovre13+1129
2Vejle13+924
3FC Fredericia13+1223
4AB Copenhagen13+318
5Aarhus Fremad13+118
6Hobro13-716
7Kolding IF13-115
8Aalborg13-215
9Hillerød13-512
10Vendsyssel FF13-712
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: HB Koge 41%, the draw 24%, Aalborg 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.63 for HB Koge, 1.48 for Aalborg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
HB Koge sit 11th on 11 points; Aalborg are 8th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.