Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Friday, 9 October 2026 · Bridge Meadow Stadium
Haverfordwest County AFC
11th · 16 pts1–2FULL TIME
Caernarfon Town
4th · 29 pts17% Haverfordwest
22% Draw
61% Caernarfon
OUR PICK
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.91
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.82X4.5921.64
Goals 2.5Over1.88Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.21
X2
83%
Season stats
Haverfordwest County AFCCaernarfon Town0.8Goals per game2.8
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.07Points per game1.93
33%Win rate60%
-8Goal difference23
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Haverfordwest County AFC form
WWWLLA Ammanford AFC0–1
A Barry Town1–3
H Cardiff Corinthians4–0
H Caernarfon Town1–2
H Flint Town United0–1
Caernarfon Town form
LWWWLA Airbus UK3–2
H Briton Ferry3–1
A Flint Town United1–3
A Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
H Barry Town0–1
Head to head
1
Haverfordwest
3
Draw
1
Caernarfon
Oct 2026Haverfordwest County AFC – Caernarfon Town1–2
Nov 2025Caernarfon Town – Haverfordwest County AFC2–2
Aug 2025Haverfordwest County AFC – Caernarfon Town1–1
May 2025Haverfordwest County AFC – Caernarfon Town3–1
Mar 2025Haverfordwest County AFC – Caernarfon Town1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Caernarfon Town clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.90 for Haverfordwest County AFC, 1.91 for Caernarfon Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Haverfordwest County AFC sit 11th on 16 points; Caernarfon Town are 4th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.