Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburger SV
15th · 9 pts1–0FULL TIME
VfB Stuttgart
11th · 9 pts23% Hamburger
20% Draw
57% VfB
OUR PICK
VfB Stuttgart to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.30
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.26X5.0621.76
Goals 2.5Over1.39Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.46NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
69%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart0.9Goals per game1.8
2.4Conceded per game1.9
1.13Points per game1.13
38%Win rate38%
-12Goal difference-1
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Hamburger SV form
LLLWWA Eintracht Frankfurt3–1
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
A SC Paderborn 071–0
H VfB Stuttgart1–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim2–3
VfB Stuttgart form
WWLDLA Bayer Leverkusen2–4
A SC Paderborn 070–1
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
H Atletico Madrid1–1
A Hamburger SV1–0
Head to head
2
Hamburger
0
Draw
3
VfB
Oct 2026Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart1–0
Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart – Hamburger SV4–0
Nov 2025Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart2–1
Jun 2023Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart1–3
Jun 2023VfB Stuttgart – Hamburger SV3–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.44 for Hamburger SV, 2.30 for VfB Stuttgart), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Hamburger SV sit 15th on 9 points; VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.