Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 9Friday, 6 November 2026 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburger SV
15th · 9 pts20:30KICK-OFF WAT
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 4 pts42% Hamburger
22% Draw
36% Borussia
OUR PICK
Hamburger SV to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.66
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X4.4722.78
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.48NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.48
GG
68%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach0.9Goals per game1.4
2.4Conceded per game2.8
1.13Points per game0.50
38%Win rate13%
-12Goal difference-11
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Hamburger SV form
LLLWWA Eintracht Frankfurt3–1
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
A SC Paderborn 071–0
H VfB Stuttgart1–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim2–3
Borussia Mönchengladbach form
DWWLLH SC Paderborn 070–0
H Karlsruher SC2–0
A VfB Stuttgart2–3
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
A 1. FC Köln2–1
Head to head
2
Hamburger
2
Draw
1
Borussia
Jan 2026Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0
Aug 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hamburger SV0–0
May 2018Hamburger SV – Borussia Monchengladbach2–1
Dec 2017Borussia Monchengladbach – Hamburger SV3–1
Mar 2017Hamburger SV – Borussia Monchengladbach2–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Hamburger SV 42%, the draw 22%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.80 for Hamburger SV, 1.66 for Borussia Mönchengladbach), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Hamburger SV sit 15th on 9 points; Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.