Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
SOUK League 1 · Matchday 31Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Gwangju Football Stadium
Gwangju FC
12th · 21 pts4–3FULL TIME
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2nd · 51 pts18% Gwangju
20% Draw
62% Ulsan
OUR PICK
Ulsan Hyundai FC to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.11
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.67X4.9321.61
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
57%
Double chance@1.21
X2
82%
Season stats
Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FC0.9Goals per game1.6
2.1Conceded per game1.4
0.64Points per game1.55
9%Win rate45%
-39Goal difference5
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Gwangju FC form
DWLWDH Gimcheon Sangmu FC1–1
A Bucheon FC 19950–3
A Daejeon Citizen3–2
H Ulsan Hyundai FC4–3
A Jeonbuk Motors2–2
Ulsan Hyundai FC form
WDWLLH Gangwon FC2–1
H Pohang Steelers2–2
H Bucheon FC 19952–1
A Gwangju FC4–3
A FC Anyang2–1
Head to head
2
Gwangju
1
Draw
2
Ulsan
Oct 2026Gwangju FC – Ulsan Hyundai FC4–3
Jul 2026Gwangju FC – Ulsan Hyundai FC1–1
Apr 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC – Gwangju FC5–1
Nov 2025Gwangju FC – Ulsan Hyundai FC2–0
Oct 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC – Gwangju FC2–0
K League 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Seoul33+3267
2Ulsan Hyundai FC33+551
3Daejeon Citizen33+1249
4Jeonbuk Motors33+1048
5Gangwon FC33+1048
6Incheon United33+846
7Jeju United FC33+246
8FC Anyang33-843
9Pohang Steelers33-942
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC33-834
Match preview
Our model makes Ulsan Hyundai FC clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.03 for Gwangju FC, 2.11 for Ulsan Hyundai FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gwangju FC sit 12th on 21 points; Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.