Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Akron
Guadalajara Chivas
2nd · 29 pts1–1FULL TIME
Tigres UANL
15th · 15 pts65% Guadalajara
22% Draw
13% Tigres
OUR PICK
Guadalajara Chivas to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.70
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X4.6327.47
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
57%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL1.7Goals per game1.0
0.9Conceded per game1.5
1.93Points per game1.00
53%Win rate20%
11Goal difference-7
11Form, last 5 (pts)5
Guadalajara Chivas form
WWWDDH Atlante FC4–2
A Monterrey0–1
H Necaxa1–0
H Tigres UANL1–1
A Atlas1–1
Tigres UANL form
LDLDWA CF Pachuca3–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–1
H Leon0–2
A Guadalajara Chivas1–1
H Toluca3–2
Head to head
1
Guadalajara
2
Draw
2
Tigres
Oct 2026Guadalajara Chivas – Tigres UANL1–1
May 2026Guadalajara Chivas – Tigres UANL2–0
May 2026Tigres UANL – Guadalajara Chivas3–1
Apr 2026Tigres UANL – Guadalajara Chivas4–1
Sept 2025Guadalajara Chivas – Tigres UANL0–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.86 for Guadalajara Chivas, 0.70 for Tigres UANL), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Guadalajara Chivas sit 2nd on 29 points; Tigres UANL are 15th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.