Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
NOR2. Division - Group 2 · Matchday 24Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Grorud Matchbane
Grorud
4th · 49 pts1–3FULL TIME
Follo
12th · 20 pts75% Grorud
16% Draw
9% Follo
OUR PICK
Grorud to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.33
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.68
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.33X6.28211.42
Goals 2.5Over1.69Under2.30
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
GrorudFollo1.8Goals per game1.3
1.0Conceded per game2.1
1.88Points per game0.77
58%Win rate19%
21Goal difference-20
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Grorud form
WLLLWH Ull/Kisa3–0
H Brann0–2
A Stjørdals-Blink2–0
H Follo1–3
A Junkeren1–3
Follo form
LWWLLA Lørenskog3–2
H Skeid2–0
A Grorud1–3
A Ull/Kisa4–2
H Stjørdals-Blink0–1
Head to head
3
Grorud
1
Draw
1
Follo
Oct 2026Grorud – Follo1–3
Apr 2026Follo – Grorud2–3
Oct 2025Follo – Grorud1–2
May 2025Grorud – Follo3–2
Oct 2024Follo – Grorud2–2
2. Division - Group 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Eidsvold26+3660
2Kjelsås26+2859
3Levanger26+3255
4Grorud26+2149
5Hønefoss26+2049
6Lørenskog26040
7Stjørdals-Blink26+139
8Tromsdalen Uil26+438
9Junkeren26-834
10Rana26-833
Match preview
Our model makes Grorud clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.39 for Grorud, 0.68 for Follo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Grorud sit 4th on 49 points; Follo are 12th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.