Over 1.5 goals@1.05
Over 1.5
95%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Groningen
8th · 15 pts16:45KICK-OFF WAT
Sparta Rotterdam
14th · 9 pts64% Groningen
16% Draw
20% Sparta
OUR PICK
Groningen to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
3.02 – 1.70
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.56X6.1625.06
Goals 2.5Over1.18Under6.29
Both scoreGG1.29NG4.29
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.18
Over 2.5
85%
Both teams to score@1.29
GG
78%
Double chance@1.19
12
84%
Season stats
GroningenSparta Rotterdam2.4Goals per game1.7
2.1Conceded per game2.4
1.50Points per game0.90
40%Win rate20%
3Goal difference-7
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Groningen form
No recent matches.
Sparta Rotterdam form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Groningen
0
Draw
0
Sparta
These sides haven't met recently.
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Groningen clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.7 goals in total (3.02 for Groningen, 1.70 for Sparta Rotterdam), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Groningen sit 8th on 15 points; Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.