Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Groningen
8th · 15 pts2–5FULL TIME
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts33% Groningen
21% Draw
46% Ajax
OUR PICK
Ajax to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.99X4.7622.20
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
72%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
GroningenAjax2.4Goals per game2.7
2.2Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game2.18
36%Win rate64%
2Goal difference17
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Groningen form
LLDLWH Sparta Rotterdam2–3
H Emmen0–2
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Ajax2–5
A Excelsior1–5
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Head to head
1
Groningen
1
Draw
3
Ajax
Oct 2026Groningen – Ajax2–5
May 2026Ajax – Groningen2–0
Mar 2026Groningen – Ajax3–1
Dec 2025Ajax – Groningen2–0
May 2025Groningen – Ajax2–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Ajax slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.76 for Groningen, 2.07 for Ajax), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Groningen sit 8th on 15 points; Ajax are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.