Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Blundell Park
Grimsby
6th · 20 pts1–2FULL TIME
Shrewsbury
15th · 18 pts64% Grimsby
20% Draw
16% Shrewsbury
OUR PICK
Grimsby to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.00
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.0626.07
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.20
1X
84%
Season stats
GrimsbyShrewsbury1.7Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.6
1.43Points per game1.29
36%Win rate36%
6Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Grimsby form
WWDLLH York5–2
A Gillingham1–4
A Rochdale2–2
H Northampton0–2
A Port Vale1–0
Shrewsbury form
LWDWWH Gillingham1–2
H Everton U212–1
A Rotherham3–3
A Crawley Town2–3
H Bristol Rovers1–0
Head to head
2
Grimsby
1
Draw
2
Shrewsbury
Oct 2026Grimsby – Shrewsbury1–2
Dec 2025Grimsby – Shrewsbury1–0
Dec 2025Shrewsbury – Grimsby1–1
Aug 2025Grimsby – Shrewsbury3–1
Dec 2015Shrewsbury – Grimsby1–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Grimsby clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.16 for Grimsby, 1.00 for Shrewsbury), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Grimsby sit 6th on 20 points; Shrewsbury are 15th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.