Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Blundell Park
Grimsby
6th · 20 pts0–2FULL TIME
Northampton
20th · 14 pts53% Grimsby
28% Draw
19% Northampton
OUR PICK
Grimsby to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.87X3.5925.35
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
GrimsbyNorthampton1.7Goals per game0.8
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.43Points per game1.17
36%Win rate25%
6Goal difference0
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Grimsby form
WWDLLH York5–2
A Gillingham1–4
A Rochdale2–2
H Northampton0–2
A Port Vale1–0
Northampton form
DWLWDA Accrington ST1–1
H Colchester2–0
H Tranmere0–1
A Grimsby0–2
A York1–1
Head to head
1
Grimsby
1
Draw
3
Northampton
Oct 2026Grimsby – Northampton0–2
Feb 2023Northampton – Grimsby1–2
Aug 2022Grimsby – Northampton1–1
Feb 2020Grimsby – Northampton0–3
Nov 2019Northampton – Grimsby2–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Grimsby clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.38 for Grimsby, 0.69 for Northampton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Grimsby sit 6th on 20 points; Northampton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.