Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
BRASerie A · Matchday 30Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Arena do Grêmio
Gremio
15th · 37 pts1–1FULL TIME
Internacional
18th · 35 pts41% Gremio
28% Draw
31% Internacional
OUR PICK
Gremio to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.44
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.44X3.5223.27
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.40
12
72%
Season stats
GremioInternacional1.1Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.12Points per game1.06
27%Win rate24%
-7Goal difference-5
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Gremio form
WWWLDH Atletico-MG2–0
H Atletico Paranaense2–0
A Coritiba0–1
H Cruzeiro2–4
H Internacional1–1
Internacional form
LWLDWA Fluminense2–1
H Botafogo3–0
A Mirassol2–0
A Gremio1–1
H Corinthians2–1
Head to head
1
Gremio
4
Draw
0
Internacional
Oct 2026Gremio – Internacional1–1
Sept 2026Gremio – Internacional3–1
Aug 2026Internacional – Gremio0–0
Apr 2026Internacional – Gremio0–0
Mar 2026Internacional – Gremio1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Gremio slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.24 for Gremio, 1.03 for Internacional), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gremio sit 15th on 37 points; Internacional are 18th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.