Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie A · Matchday 31Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Arena do Grêmio
Gremio
15th · 37 pts2–4FULL TIME
Cruzeiro
3rd · 57 pts38% Gremio
27% Draw
36% Cruzeiro
OUR PICK
Gremio to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.66
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.66X3.7422.80
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
GremioCruzeiro1.1Goals per game1.6
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.12Points per game1.73
27%Win rate52%
-7Goal difference6
8Form, last 5 (pts)12
Gremio form
WWWLDH Atletico-MG2–0
H Atletico Paranaense2–0
A Coritiba0–1
H Cruzeiro2–4
H Internacional1–1
Cruzeiro form
WWWLWA Atletico-MG0–1
H Remo1–0
A Gremio2–4
A RB Bragantino4–2
H Sao Paulo2–0
Head to head
1
Gremio
0
Draw
4
Cruzeiro
Oct 2026Gremio – Cruzeiro2–4
Jul 2026Gremio – Cruzeiro3–1
Apr 2026Cruzeiro – Gremio2–0
Nov 2025Gremio – Cruzeiro0–1
Jul 2025Cruzeiro – Gremio4–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Gremio 38%, the draw 27%, Cruzeiro 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.29 for Gremio, 1.25 for Cruzeiro), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gremio sit 15th on 37 points; Cruzeiro are 3rd on 57.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.