Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Friday, 30 October 2026 · Arena do Grêmio
Gremio
15th · 37 pts2–0FULL TIME
Atletico Paranaense
5th · 54 pts30% Gremio
26% Draw
43% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Paranaense to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.28X3.7922.32
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
GremioAtletico Paranaense1.1Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.12Points per game1.64
27%Win rate45%
-7Goal difference10
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Gremio form
WWWLDH Atletico-MG2–0
H Atletico Paranaense2–0
A Coritiba0–1
H Cruzeiro2–4
H Internacional1–1
Atletico Paranaense form
LDLWDA Gremio2–0
A Vitoria1–1
H Palmeiras0–2
A Chapecoense-sc1–4
H Atletico-MG2–2
Head to head
0
Gremio
0
Draw
0
Atletico
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.14 for Gremio, 1.41 for Atletico Paranaense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gremio sit 15th on 37 points; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.