Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Grazer AK
9th · 10 pts0–4FULL TIME
TSV Hartberg
5th · 17 pts27% Grazer
23% Draw
51% TSV
OUR PICK
TSV Hartberg to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.74X4.4421.97
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
Grazer AKTSV Hartberg0.7Goals per game1.8
2.5Conceded per game1.7
0.91Points per game1.55
18%Win rate45%
-19Goal difference1
3Form, last 5 (pts)10
Grazer AK form
LLDLDH TSV Hartberg0–4
H SCR Altach0–4
A WSG Wattens1–1
A Sturm Graz6–1
H Red Bull Salzburg0–0
TSV Hartberg form
WDWLWA Grazer AK0–4
A Austria Vienna1–1
H Wolfsberger AC1–0
A Rapid Vienna3–1
H Austria Lustenau4–3
Head to head
0
Grazer
2
Draw
3
TSV
Oct 2026Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg0–4
Feb 2026TSV Hartberg – Grazer AK1–0
Oct 2025Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg0–0
Apr 2025TSV Hartberg – Grazer AK1–1
Apr 2025Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg0–3
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes TSV Hartberg slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.31 for Grazer AK, 1.88 for TSV Hartberg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Grazer AK sit 9th on 10 points; TSV Hartberg are 5th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.