Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Grazer AK
9th · 10 pts0–0FULL TIME
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd · 27 pts4% Grazer
10% Draw
86% Red
OUR PICK
Red Bull Salzburg to win
Model probability 86% · fair odds
1.16
Expected goals
0.64 – 3.20
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2122.53X10.4721.16
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.05
X2
96%
Season stats
Grazer AKRed Bull Salzburg0.7Goals per game2.6
2.5Conceded per game0.5
0.91Points per game2.45
18%Win rate73%
-19Goal difference23
3Form, last 5 (pts)13
Grazer AK form
LLDLDH TSV Hartberg0–4
H SCR Altach0–4
A WSG Wattens1–1
A Sturm Graz6–1
H Red Bull Salzburg0–0
Red Bull Salzburg form
WWWDWH Austria Lustenau5–1
A Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz2–3
A Lask Linz1–3
A Celje2–2
H SCR Altach3–0
Head to head
0
Grazer
3
Draw
2
Red
Oct 2026Grazer AK – Red Bull Salzburg0–0
Feb 2026Grazer AK – Red Bull Salzburg1–1
Aug 2025Red Bull Salzburg – Grazer AK5–0
Nov 2024Red Bull Salzburg – Grazer AK0–0
Aug 2024Grazer AK – Red Bull Salzburg2–3
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg clear favourites, giving them a 86% chance of winning against 10% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (0.64 for Grazer AK, 3.20 for Red Bull Salzburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Grazer AK sit 9th on 10 points; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.