Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla
Gornik Zabrze
2nd · 28 pts1–1FULL TIME
Piast Gliwice
6th · 21 pts56% Gornik
22% Draw
21% Piast
OUR PICK
Gornik Zabrze to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.77
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.08
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.77X4.4924.70
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
Gornik ZabrzePiast Gliwice1.6Goals per game1.8
0.8Conceded per game1.5
2.15Points per game1.62
62%Win rate46%
10Goal difference4
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Gornik Zabrze form
DDDDWH Legia Warszawa0–0
A Piast Gliwice0–0
A Widzew Łódź1–1
H Piast Gliwice1–1
A Jagiellonia1–3
Piast Gliwice form
DDWDWA Wisla Plock2–2
H Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Cracovia Krakow3–1
A Gornik Zabrze1–1
H Widzew Łódź2–1
Head to head
2
Gornik
2
Draw
1
Piast
Oct 2026Piast Gliwice – Gornik Zabrze0–0
Oct 2026Gornik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice1–1
Jan 2026Gornik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice2–1
Jul 2025Piast Gliwice – Gornik Zabrze0–1
May 2025Piast Gliwice – Gornik Zabrze2–0
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model makes Gornik Zabrze clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.90 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.08 for Piast Gliwice), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd on 28 points; Piast Gliwice are 6th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.