Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Arena Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
2nd · 28 pts0–0FULL TIME
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 24 pts41% Gornik
27% Draw
32% Legia
OUR PICK
Gornik Zabrze to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.44
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.44X3.7123.12
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Gornik ZabrzeLegia Warszawa1.6Goals per game1.8
0.8Conceded per game0.8
2.15Points per game1.85
62%Win rate46%
10Goal difference12
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Gornik Zabrze form
DDDDWH Legia Warszawa0–0
A Piast Gliwice0–0
A Widzew Łódź1–1
H Piast Gliwice1–1
A Jagiellonia1–3
Legia Warszawa form
DLDWWA Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Lech Poznan1–2
A Cracovia Krakow1–1
H Wisla Krakow2–0
H Korona Kielce5–1
Head to head
1
Gornik
3
Draw
1
Legia
Oct 2026Gornik Zabrze – Legia Warszawa0–0
Apr 2026Legia Warszawa – Gornik Zabrze1–1
Oct 2025Gornik Zabrze – Legia Warszawa3–1
Apr 2025Gornik Zabrze – Legia Warszawa1–2
Sept 2024Legia Warszawa – Gornik Zabrze1–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Gornik Zabrze 41%, the draw 27%, Legia Warszawa 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.34 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.15 for Legia Warszawa), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd on 28 points; Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.