Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 6Sunday, 8 November 2026
GOR Mahia
1st · 12 pts14:15KICK-OFF WAT
Nairobi United
12th · 4 pts60% GOR
22% Draw
18% Nairobi
OUR PICK
GOR Mahia to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.89
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.66X4.4925.70
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.21
1X
82%
Season stats
GOR MahiaNairobi United1.6Goals per game1.2
0.8Conceded per game1.4
2.40Points per game0.80
80%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-1
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
GOR Mahia form
LWWWWH KCB1–2
A Homeboyz0–1
H Bandari1–0
A APS Bomet0–1
H Murang'a SEAL4–2
Nairobi United form
DLDDDH Bandari1–1
A Murang'a SEAL3–2
H APS Bomet1–1
A Shabana0–0
H KCB2–2
Head to head
0
GOR
1
Draw
2
Nairobi
May 2026GOR Mahia – Nairobi United0–1
Dec 2025Nairobi United – GOR Mahia1–1
Jun 2025GOR Mahia – Nairobi United1–2
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes GOR Mahia clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.86 for GOR Mahia, 0.89 for Nairobi United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
GOR Mahia sit 1st on 12 points; Nairobi United are 12th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.