Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Tuesday, 13 October 2026
GOR Mahia
1st · 12 pts4–2FULL TIME
Murang'a SEAL
6th · 7 pts40% GOR
28% Draw
32% Murang'a
OUR PICK
GOR Mahia to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.49
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.49X3.5923.13
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
GOR MahiaMurang'a SEAL1.6Goals per game2.2
0.8Conceded per game1.8
2.40Points per game1.40
80%Win rate40%
4Goal difference2
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
GOR Mahia form
LWWWWH KCB1–2
A Homeboyz0–1
H Bandari1–0
A APS Bomet0–1
H Murang'a SEAL4–2
Murang'a SEAL form
DWLWLA APS Bomet0–0
H Nairobi United3–2
A 3K2–1
H Posta Rangers FC5–1
A GOR Mahia4–2
Head to head
3
GOR
2
Draw
0
Murang'a
Oct 2026GOR Mahia – Murang'a SEAL4–2
May 2026Murang'a SEAL – GOR Mahia1–3
Jan 2026GOR Mahia – Murang'a SEAL3–2
May 2025GOR Mahia – Murang'a SEAL2–2
May 2025Murang'a SEAL – GOR Mahia0–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: GOR Mahia 40%, the draw 28%, Murang'a SEAL 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.26 for GOR Mahia, 1.09 for Murang'a SEAL), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
GOR Mahia sit 1st on 12 points; Murang'a SEAL are 6th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.