Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
69%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Monday, 19 October 2026 · Estádio da Serrinha
Goias
7th · 55 pts0–0FULL TIME
Nautico Recife
15th · 46 pts45% Goias
27% Draw
28% Nautico
OUR PICK
Goias to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.24X3.6623.56
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.74
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.38
12
73%
Season stats
GoiasNautico Recife1.1Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.53Points per game1.28
44%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference-6
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
Goias form
WWDWWH CRB2–1
A Ceara0–2
H Nautico Recife0–0
A Operario-PR0–2
H Athletic Club2–1
Nautico Recife form
WLDLLH Avai1–0
A Juventude4–0
A Goias0–0
H Vila Nova0–2
H Novorizontino0–2
Head to head
2
Goias
1
Draw
2
Nautico
Oct 2026Goias – Nautico Recife0–0
Jun 2026Nautico Recife – Goias0–1
Oct 2021Nautico Recife – Goias3–2
Jul 2021Goias – Nautico Recife0–1
Oct 2017Goias – Nautico Recife2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Goias slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.36 for Goias, 1.02 for Nautico Recife), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Goias sit 7th on 55 points; Nautico Recife are 15th on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.