Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Tuesday, 6 October 2026 · Estádio da Serrinha
Goias
7th · 55 pts2–1FULL TIME
Athletic Club
14th · 47 pts38% Goias
30% Draw
33% Athletic
OUR PICK
Goias to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.3823.06
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
GoiasAthletic Club1.1Goals per game1.2
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.53Points per game1.31
44%Win rate31%
-3Goal difference1
13Form, last 5 (pts)5
Goias form
WWDWWH CRB2–1
A Ceara0–2
H Nautico Recife0–0
A Operario-PR0–2
H Athletic Club2–1
Athletic Club form
WLDDLH Ceara2–1
A Operario-PR1–0
A Avai0–0
H Londrina2–2
A Goias2–1
Head to head
1
Goias
2
Draw
1
Athletic
Oct 2026Goias – Athletic Club2–1
Jun 2026Athletic Club – Goias1–1
Oct 2025Athletic Club – Goias1–1
Jun 2025Goias – Athletic Club1–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Goias 38%, the draw 30%, Athletic Club 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.12 for Goias, 1.02 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Goias sit 7th on 55 points; Athletic Club are 14th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.