Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadion miejski w Katowicach
GKS Katowice
6th · 21 pts0–1FULL TIME
Pogon Szczecin
4th · 24 pts44% GKS
23% Draw
33% Pogon
OUR PICK
GKS Katowice to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X4.3223.02
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
GKS KatowicePogon Szczecin1.9Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.0
1.62Points per game2.00
54%Win rate58%
6Goal difference8
9Form, last 5 (pts)12
GKS Katowice form
WLLLWH Widzew Łódź3–2
A Górnik Łęczna1–0
A Korona Kielce1–0
H Pogon Szczecin0–1
H Wieczysta Kraków2–1
Pogon Szczecin form
WWWDWH Radomiak Radom4–3
A GKS Katowice0–1
H Korona Kielce2–0
H Udinese1–1
A Piast Gliwice1–2
Head to head
2
GKS
1
Draw
2
Pogon
Oct 2026GKS Katowice – Pogon Szczecin0–1
May 2026Pogon Szczecin – GKS Katowice1–1
Nov 2025GKS Katowice – Pogon Szczecin2–0
Apr 2025Pogon Szczecin – GKS Katowice4–0
Sept 2024GKS Katowice – Pogon Szczecin3–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes GKS Katowice slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.74 for GKS Katowice, 1.49 for Pogon Szczecin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
GKS Katowice sit 6th on 21 points; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.