Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Montilivi
Girona
7th · 21 pts5–1FULL TIME
Celta de Vigo II
16th · 13 pts59% Girona
22% Draw
19% Celta
OUR PICK
Girona to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.01
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X4.5525.14
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
GironaCelta de Vigo II1.8Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.9
1.75Points per game1.08
50%Win rate25%
11Goal difference-5
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Girona form
LWWWDA Real Sociedad II1–0
A Cuarte0–2
H Celta de Vigo II5–1
H FC Andorra2–0
A Tenerife1–1
Celta de Vigo II form
DLDWLH Cordoba2–2
A Girona5–1
H Tenerife1–1
H Real Sociedad II4–1
A Sporting Gijon3–2
Head to head
1
Girona
0
Draw
0
Celta
Oct 2026Girona – Celta de Vigo II5–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Girona clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.92 for Girona, 1.01 for Celta de Vigo II), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Girona sit 7th on 21 points; Celta de Vigo II are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.