Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 13Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Montilivi
Girona
6th · 21 pts16:15KICK-OFF WAT
Almeria
2nd · 26 pts41% Girona
26% Draw
33% Almeria
OUR PICK
Girona to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X3.7923.03
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
GironaAlmeria1.8Goals per game1.9
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.75Points per game2.17
50%Win rate67%
11Goal difference13
8Form, last 5 (pts)11
Girona form
LWWWDA Real Sociedad II1–0
A Cuarte0–2
H Celta de Vigo II5–1
H FC Andorra2–0
A Tenerife1–1
Almeria form
DWDWWA Eibar1–1
A Castellonense1–2
H Oviedo2–2
A Real Sociedad II2–4
H Leganes3–0
Head to head
3
Girona
1
Draw
1
Almeria
Jan 2024Almeria – Girona0–0
Oct 2023Girona – Almeria5–2
Feb 2023Girona – Almeria6–2
Oct 2022Almeria – Girona3–2
Mar 2022Almeria – Girona0–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Girona 41%, the draw 26%, Almeria 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.37 for Girona, 1.21 for Almeria), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Girona sit 6th on 21 points; Almeria are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.