Over 1.5 goals@1.67
Over 1.5
60%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio El Gigante del Norte
Gimnasia Y Tiro
3–1FULL TIME
Atlanta
34% Gimnasia
31% Draw
35% Atlanta
OUR PICK
Atlanta to win
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.84
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.93X3.2622.84
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.49
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.44
12
69%
Gimnasia Y Tiro form
LLWDLH Quilmes0–1
A Midland3–0
H Atlanta3–1
A Gimnasia Jujuy2–2
A San Martin Tucuman1–0
Atlanta form
DWLWWH Midland0–0
A Gimnasia Jujuy1–2
A Gimnasia Y Tiro3–1
H San Martin Tucuman1–0
A Atletico DE Rafaela2–3
Head to head
2
Gimnasia
2
Draw
1
Atlanta
Oct 2026Gimnasia Y Tiro – Atlanta3–1
May 2026Atlanta – Gimnasia Y Tiro1–1
Sept 2025Gimnasia Y Tiro – Atlanta2–2
May 2025Atlanta – Gimnasia Y Tiro1–0
Jul 2024Gimnasia Y Tiro – Atlanta1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Gimnasia Y Tiro 34%, the draw 31%, Atlanta 35%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.00 for Gimnasia Y Tiro, 1.02 for Atlanta), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.