Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12Monday, 12 October 2026 · Victor Legrotaglie
Gimnasia M.
11th · 19 pts1–0FULL TIME
Newells Old Boys
14th · 15 pts46% Gimnasia
25% Draw
29% Newells
OUR PICK
Gimnasia M. to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.19
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.19X4.0023.41
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Gimnasia M.Newells Old Boys0.9Goals per game0.9
1.4Conceded per game1.7
1.19Points per game0.94
31%Win rate19%
-8Goal difference-12
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Gimnasia M. form
DLLWLA Lanus1–1
H Platense1–2
A Velez Sarsfield1–0
H Newells Old Boys1–0
A Estudiantes L.P.3–0
Newells Old Boys form
DDWLDH Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo0–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago2–1
A Gimnasia M.1–0
H Lanus0–0
Head to head
1
Gimnasia
0
Draw
1
Newells
Oct 2026Gimnasia M. – Newells Old Boys1–0
Mar 2026Newells Old Boys – Gimnasia M.1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Gimnasia M. slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.56 for Gimnasia M., 1.20 for Newells Old Boys), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gimnasia M. sit 11th on 19 points; Newells Old Boys are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.