Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo
Gimnasia L.P.
2–0FULL TIME
Sarmiento Junin
48% Gimnasia
27% Draw
25% Sarmiento
OUR PICK
Gimnasia L.P. to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X3.7023.94
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.34
1X
75%
Gimnasia L.P. form
WWWDDA Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2
H Sarmiento Junin2–0
A Huracan1–2
H Atletico Tucuman1–1
A Independ. Rivadavia1–1
Sarmiento Junin form
LLDDWH Rosario Central1–2
A Gimnasia L.P.2–0
H Barracas Central1–1
H River Plate1–1
A Aldosivi1–3
Head to head
3
Gimnasia
2
Draw
0
Sarmiento
Oct 2026Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin2–0
Apr 2026Sarmiento Junin – Gimnasia L.P.1–2
Oct 2025Sarmiento Junin – Gimnasia L.P.0–1
Mar 2025Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin0–0
Oct 2024Sarmiento Junin – Gimnasia L.P.1–1
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Gimnasia L.P. slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.41 for Gimnasia L.P., 0.95 for Sarmiento Junin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.