Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Priestfield Stadium
Gillingham
8th · 20 pts1–1FULL TIME
Port Vale
18th · 15 pts51% Gillingham
27% Draw
22% Port
OUR PICK
Gillingham to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.87
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X3.7624.46
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
GillinghamPort Vale1.4Goals per game0.8
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.43Points per game1.25
36%Win rate33%
1Goal difference-4
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Gillingham form
WLDLWA Shrewsbury1–2
H Grimsby1–4
H Port Vale1–1
A Accrington ST3–1
H Brighton U214–3
Port Vale form
WWLDWH Rochdale4–2
H Manchester City U215–0
A York2–0
A Gillingham1–1
H Chesterfield1–0
Head to head
2
Gillingham
2
Draw
1
Port
Oct 2026Gillingham – Port Vale1–1
May 2025Port Vale – Gillingham0–1
Nov 2024Gillingham – Port Vale1–0
Feb 2017Gillingham – Port Vale1–1
Sept 2016Port Vale – Gillingham2–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Gillingham slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.46 for Gillingham, 0.87 for Port Vale), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gillingham sit 8th on 20 points; Port Vale are 18th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.