Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Priestfield Stadium
Gillingham
8th · 20 pts0–0FULL TIME
Newport County
14th · 18 pts43% Gillingham
24% Draw
33% Newport
OUR PICK
Gillingham to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.33
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.33X4.1923.00
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.64
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
GillinghamNewport County1.4Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.43Points per game1.29
36%Win rate29%
1Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Gillingham form
WLDLWA Shrewsbury1–2
H Grimsby1–4
H Port Vale1–1
A Accrington ST3–1
H Brighton U214–3
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
Head to head
2
Gillingham
2
Draw
1
Newport
Oct 2026Gillingham – Newport County0–0
Jan 2026Gillingham – Newport County3–2
Nov 2025Newport County – Gillingham1–1
Sept 2025Newport County – Gillingham1–3
Mar 2025Newport County – Gillingham3–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Gillingham slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.64 for Gillingham, 1.42 for Newport County), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gillingham sit 8th on 20 points; Newport County are 14th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.