Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Priestfield Stadium
Gillingham
8th · 20 pts1–4FULL TIME
Grimsby
6th · 20 pts46% Gillingham
25% Draw
29% Grimsby
OUR PICK
Gillingham to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X4.0023.46
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
GillinghamGrimsby1.4Goals per game1.7
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.43Points per game1.43
36%Win rate36%
1Goal difference6
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Gillingham form
WLDLWA Shrewsbury1–2
H Grimsby1–4
H Port Vale1–1
A Accrington ST3–1
H Brighton U214–3
Grimsby form
WWDLLH York5–2
A Gillingham1–4
A Rochdale2–2
H Northampton0–2
A Port Vale1–0
Head to head
0
Gillingham
1
Draw
4
Grimsby
Oct 2026Gillingham – Grimsby1–4
Apr 2026Gillingham – Grimsby1–4
Oct 2025Grimsby – Gillingham1–0
Jan 2025Grimsby – Gillingham1–1
Oct 2024Gillingham – Grimsby0–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Gillingham slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.57 for Gillingham, 1.19 for Grimsby), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gillingham sit 8th on 20 points; Grimsby are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.