Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Monday, 19 October 2026 · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez
Getafe
13th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 12 pts36% Getafe
26% Draw
38% Rayo
OUR PICK
Rayo Vallecano to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.37
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.76X3.8722.63
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
GetafeRayo Vallecano0.7Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game2.0
1.09Points per game1.20
27%Win rate30%
-8Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Getafe form
WWLLDH Sevilla3–1
A Lebrijana2–3
A Athletic Club4–0
H FC Lugano2–5
H Rayo Vallecano1–1
Rayo Vallecano form
WWLDDH Celta Vigo3–0
A Recreativo Huelva2–3
H Elche0–3
A Getafe1–1
H Athletic Club0–0
Head to head
0
Getafe
3
Draw
2
Rayo
Oct 2026Getafe – Rayo Vallecano1–1
May 2026Getafe – Rayo Vallecano0–2
Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano – Getafe1–1
May 2025Rayo Vallecano – Getafe1–0
Aug 2024Getafe – Rayo Vallecano0–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Getafe 36%, the draw 26%, Rayo Vallecano 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.33 for Getafe, 1.37 for Rayo Vallecano), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Getafe sit 13th on 12 points; Rayo Vallecano are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.