Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Coliseum
Getafe
30th · 1 pts2–5FULL TIME
FC Lugano
2nd · 6 pts42% Getafe
24% Draw
35% FC
OUR PICK
Getafe to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.39X4.2422.89
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
GetafeFC Lugano1.5Goals per game4.0
3.0Conceded per game2.0
0.50Points per game3.00
0%Win rate100%
-3Goal difference4
1Form, last 5 (pts)6
Getafe form
WWLLDH Sevilla3–1
A Lebrijana2–3
A Athletic Club4–0
H FC Lugano2–5
H Rayo Vallecano1–1
FC Lugano form
WWWWWH FC Basel 18932–1
A FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
Head to head
0
Getafe
0
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026Getafe – FC Lugano2–5
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Getafe 42%, the draw 24%, FC Lugano 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.66 for Getafe, 1.49 for FC Lugano), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Getafe sit 30th on 1 points; FC Lugano are 2nd on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.