Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Planet Group Arena
Gent
17th · 3 pts1–0FULL TIME
Aarhus
26th · 1 pts35% Gent
27% Draw
39% Aarhus
OUR PICK
Aarhus to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.89X3.7722.57
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
GentAarhus0.5Goals per game0.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.50Points per game0.50
50%Win rate0%
-1Goal difference-1
3Form, last 5 (pts)1
Gent form
LWLDWA Lommel United2–0
H Anderlecht4–0
A SC Braga2–0
A Rochefort3–3
H Aarhus1–0
Aarhus form
LWWDDA Brondby2–0
A Roskilde1–2
H Viborg2–1
H Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–1
A FC Copenhagen1–1
Head to head
1
Gent
0
Draw
0
Aarhus
Oct 2026Gent – Aarhus1–0
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Gent 35%, the draw 27%, Aarhus 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.24 for Gent, 1.33 for Aarhus), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gent sit 17th on 3 points; Aarhus are 26th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.