Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
ITASerie A · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
11th · 13 pts1–0FULL TIME
Venezia
20th · 3 pts56% Genoa
25% Draw
19% Venezia
OUR PICK
Genoa to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.84
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X4.0525.19
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
GenoaVenezia1.0Goals per game0.6
1.4Conceded per game2.0
1.30Points per game0.30
40%Win rate10%
-4Goal difference-14
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
Venezia form
LLLWLA Como1–0
H Inter0–2
A Genoa1–0
H Napoli1–0
A Atalanta3–1
Head to head
3
Genoa
0
Draw
2
Venezia
Oct 2026Genoa – Venezia1–0
Feb 2025Genoa – Venezia2–0
Sept 2024Venezia – Genoa2–0
Jul 2024Venezia – Genoa1–3
Jul 2023Genoa – Venezia1–4
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Genoa clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.63 for Genoa, 0.84 for Venezia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Genoa sit 11th on 13 points; Venezia are 20th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.