Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
11th · 13 pts2–0FULL TIME
Juventus
7th · 17 pts25% Genoa
28% Draw
47% Juventus
OUR PICK
Juventus to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.31
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.08X3.5222.12
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.59
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.73
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.73
NG
58%
Double chance@1.32
X2
75%
Season stats
GenoaJuventus1.0Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.30Points per game1.70
40%Win rate50%
-4Goal difference3
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
Juventus form
WLWDLH Napoli2–0
A Genoa2–0
A Lecce0–2
H Rennes2–2
H Lazio0–3
Head to head
1
Genoa
0
Draw
4
Juventus
Oct 2026Genoa – Juventus2–0
Apr 2026Juventus – Genoa2–0
Aug 2025Genoa – Juventus0–1
Mar 2025Juventus – Genoa1–0
Sept 2024Genoa – Juventus0–3
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Juventus slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.86 for Genoa, 1.31 for Juventus), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Genoa sit 11th on 13 points; Juventus are 7th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.