Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
11th · 13 pts2–1FULL TIME
Fiorentina
16th · 8 pts45% Genoa
24% Draw
31% Fiorentina
OUR PICK
Genoa to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.31
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.21X4.1423.26
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
GenoaFiorentina1.0Goals per game1.5
1.4Conceded per game2.3
1.30Points per game0.80
40%Win rate20%
-4Goal difference-8
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
Fiorentina form
WDLLLA Sassuolo2–4
H Atalanta2–2
A Inter2–1
H Como1–3
A Genoa2–1
Head to head
1
Genoa
2
Draw
2
Fiorentina
Oct 2026Genoa – Fiorentina2–1
May 2026Fiorentina – Genoa0–0
Nov 2025Genoa – Fiorentina2–2
Feb 2025Fiorentina – Genoa2–1
Oct 2024Genoa – Fiorentina0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Genoa slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.64 for Genoa, 1.31 for Fiorentina), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Genoa sit 11th on 13 points; Fiorentina are 16th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.