Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
11th · 13 pts2–1FULL TIME
Fiorentina
17th · 5 pts49% Genoa
24% Draw
26% Fiorentina
OUR PICK
Genoa to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.14
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X4.1023.80
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
GenoaFiorentina1.0Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game2.3
1.30Points per game0.56
40%Win rate11%
-4Goal difference-10
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
Fiorentina form
DLLLDH Atalanta2–2
A Inter2–1
H Como1–3
A Genoa2–1
H Napoli1–1
Head to head
1
Genoa
2
Draw
2
Fiorentina
Oct 2026Genoa – Fiorentina2–1
May 2026Fiorentina – Genoa0–0
Nov 2025Genoa – Fiorentina2–2
Feb 2025Fiorentina – Genoa2–1
Oct 2024Genoa – Fiorentina0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Genoa slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.65 for Genoa, 1.14 for Fiorentina), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Genoa sit 11th on 13 points; Fiorentina are 17th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.