Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
ITASerie A · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
11th · 13 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
AC Milan
5th · 21 pts26% Genoa
25% Draw
49% AC
OUR PICK
AC Milan to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.60
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.90X4.0122.02
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
GenoaAC Milan1.0Goals per game2.1
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.30Points per game2.10
40%Win rate60%
-4Goal difference9
12Form, last 5 (pts)10
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
AC Milan form
WLWLWH Inter3–1
H Bologna2–4
A Udinese0–2
A Bournemouth3–0
H Atalanta3–2
Head to head
0
Genoa
3
Draw
2
AC
May 2026Genoa – AC Milan1–2
Jan 2026AC Milan – Genoa1–1
May 2025Genoa – AC Milan1–2
Dec 2024AC Milan – Genoa0–0
May 2024AC Milan – Genoa3–3
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AC Milan slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.08 for Genoa, 1.60 for AC Milan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Genoa sit 11th on 13 points; AC Milan are 5th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.