Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
WALPremier League · Matchday 12Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Essity Stadium
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2nd · 35 pts1–0FULL TIME
Penybont
3rd · 33 pts45% GAP
27% Draw
27% Penybont
OUR PICK
GAP Connah S Quay FC to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.01
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.6823.64
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybont2.1Goals per game2.1
0.6Conceded per game0.8
2.33Points per game2.36
73%Win rate71%
23Goal difference19
13Form, last 5 (pts)12
GAP Connah S Quay FC form
DWWWWA The New Saints0–0
H Llandudno2–0
H Porthmadog4–0
A Briton Ferry1–2
H Penybont1–0
Penybont form
WWWLA Cardiff MET0–5
A Afan Lido2–3
H Barry Town3–1
A GAP Connah S Quay FC1–0
Head to head
4
GAP
1
Draw
0
Penybont
Oct 2026GAP Connah S Quay FC – Penybont1–0
Mar 2026GAP Connah S Quay FC – Penybont2–1
Feb 2026Penybont – GAP Connah S Quay FC0–0
Nov 2025GAP Connah S Quay FC – Penybont4–0
Aug 2025Penybont – GAP Connah S Quay FC0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.38 for GAP Connah S Quay FC, 1.01 for Penybont), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 2nd on 35 points; Penybont are 3rd on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.