Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Panasonic Stadium Suita
Gamba Osaka
16th · 12 pts2–2FULL TIME
Kyoto Sanga
14th · 13 pts42% Gamba
26% Draw
32% Kyoto
OUR PICK
Gamba Osaka to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.22
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X3.8523.09
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga1.1Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.8
0.92Points per game1.00
15%Win rate23%
-7Goal difference-6
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Gamba Osaka form
DDDWDA Machida Zelvia0–0
H Buriram United1–1
H Kyoto Sanga2–2
A Avispa Fukuoka1–2
A Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Kyoto Sanga form
WWDDLH Shimizu S-pulse2–0
H Newcastle Jets5–2
A Gamba Osaka2–2
H Kashima2–2
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–0
Head to head
2
Gamba
2
Draw
1
Kyoto
Oct 2026Gamba Osaka – Kyoto Sanga2–2
Apr 2026Kyoto Sanga – Gamba Osaka1–1
Apr 2026Gamba Osaka – Kyoto Sanga2–0
Jun 2025Kyoto Sanga – Gamba Osaka3–1
Apr 2025Gamba Osaka – Kyoto Sanga2–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Gamba Osaka slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.42 for Gamba Osaka, 1.22 for Kyoto Sanga), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gamba Osaka sit 16th on 12 points; Kyoto Sanga are 14th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.