Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Panasonic Stadium Suita
Gamba Osaka
16th · 12 pts07:00KICK-OFF WAT
Cerezo Osaka
12th · 14 pts47% Gamba
26% Draw
27% Cerezo
OUR PICK
Gamba Osaka to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.11X3.8723.73
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka1.1Goals per game1.0
1.6Conceded per game1.8
0.92Points per game1.08
15%Win rate23%
-7Goal difference-10
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Gamba Osaka form
DDDWDA Machida Zelvia0–0
H Buriram United1–1
H Kyoto Sanga2–2
A Avispa Fukuoka1–2
A Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Cerezo Osaka form
LWDDLA Kashima4–1
A Mito Hollyhock1–3
H JEF United Chiba2–2
A Nagoya Grampus1–1
H Kawasaki Frontale2–4
Head to head
0
Gamba
0
Draw
0
Cerezo
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Gamba Osaka slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.50 for Gamba Osaka, 1.06 for Cerezo Osaka), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gamba Osaka sit 16th on 12 points; Cerezo Osaka are 12th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.